The Planning Division prepares estimates of the Town’s year-end population. Recent research and analysis indicates the Town’s population as of Dec. 1, 2022, was 34,828. Based on these year-end estimates,the population of Erie has increased 2,176 people or approximately 6.7% since the end of 2021 (end-of-year population estimate of 32,652 in 2021).
This estimate is derived from several variables including:
- Number of dwelling units
- Vacancy rate
- Average household size for single-family and multi-family dwellings
- Population living in group quarters
In addition to data generated from the Town of Erie, other data sources are consulted for these estimates, including the Census Bureau and the State Demography Office (SDO). Census data includes counts from the decennial census (2020) and the American Community Survey (ACS). The ACS is an ongoing statistical survey administered by the U.S. Census Bureau that reports 5-year and 1-year estimates for several detailed variables; information from this survey generates demographic, social, housing, and economic data. The SDO collects local data and uses this information to generate statewide, county-level, and municipal estimates for population and housing.
A discussion of each of the variables used to develop the population estimate follows in the memo.
Number of Dwelling Units
As of April 1, 2020, the US Census Bureau placed the number of dwelling units in the Town of Erie at 10,332. Calculations done by Planning staff subsequent to the 2020 Census estimated that there were 11,258 dwelling units available for occupancy in the Town as of Dec. 31, 2021.
Data indicate that an additional 984 dwelling units were issued certificates of occupancy (COs) between Jan. 1, 2022 and Dec. 31, 2022; this included 697 single family units (detached and attached) and 287 multifamily units. In addition, eight units were added through annexation and one residential unit was demolished in 2022. Based on this information, the estimated number of dwelling units available for occupancy at the end of 2022 was 12,249 (=11,258+984+8-1).
Vacancy Rate
The 2020 Census reported a vacancy rate of 2.8% for the Town of Erie; for the end of year 2021 population estimate, this vacancy rate was used. The American Community Survey (ACS) also reports vacancy rates; the average vacancy rate reported in the current 5-year ACS Estimates (2017 – 2021) for Erie was just over 2.0%. Typically, 1-Year ACS estimates are also reported, however this information is not currently available. The State Demography Office (SDO) also tracks vacancy for municipalities in Colorado; in 2022, they reported Erie’s vacancy at 4.3% (for 2021). Local information supports that vacancy rates may be slightly higher than the lowest rates observed a few years ago, but that the town’s vacancy rates are still relatively low. Based on ACS data, SDO data and anecdotal information collected by staff, a vacancy rate of 3.0% has been used for these estimates.
Average Household Size
The US Census Bureau reported the average household size in the Town of Erie was 2.99 persons per household in 2020. The average household size reported in the 5-year ACS Estimates (2017 – 2021) for Erie was 2.97 per household. The SDO reported an average household size of 2.99 for Erie. The Town also recognizes that multifamily housing typically has smaller household sizes than single family housing. Since the Town is starting to permit more of this type of housing, a separate average household size for multifamily housing (apartments & condos) will be used. For this estimate, the Town has used a household size of 2.99 persons per household for single family housing (93.4% of total occupied units) and 2.1 persons per household for multifamily (6.6% of total occupied units),
Group Quarters Population
The 2020 Census reported that there were no group quarters present in the Town of Erie and no new group quarters have been constructed within the Town.
Dec. 31, 2022 Population Estimate
12,249 | Total dwelling units |
x 0.97 | Occupancy rate (3.0% vacancy rate) |
11,882 | Occupied dwelling units |
x 2.99 | Average household size for Single Family Households (93.4% of total HH) |
33,181 | Persons living in Single Family Households |
x 2.10 | Average household size for Multi Family Households (6.6% of total HH) |
1,647 | Persons living in Multi Family Households |
34,828 | Persons living in householdss |
34,828 | Town of Erie 2022 population estimate |